In President Obama’s weekly address on December 10, 2016, the President encouraged Americans who do not currently have healthcare, to enroll in a health insurance plan under the Affordable Care Act (ACA). In the address, the President likely also wanted to remind everyone listening that the threat of Republicans in Congress repealing this law was now a real possibility. President Obama stated “that if Congress repeals Obamacare as they’ve proposed, nearly 30 million Americans would lose their coverage. Four in five of them would come from working families. More than nine million Americans who would receive tax credits to keep insurance affordable would no longer receive that help.” Now that President-elect Trump will take office in a matter of days, what is the fate of healthcare in America?
“The first order of business is to keep our promise to repeal Obamacare and replace it with the kind of healthcare reform that will lower the cost of health insurance without growing the size of government,” Vice President Elect Pence told a news conference recently. Pence also said that Trump would work with congressional leaders for a “smooth transition to a market-based healthcare reform system” through legislative and executive action. House Speaker Paul Ryan said that lawmakers would take action that did not “pull the rug out from anybody” and that the party had “plenty of ideas.” Democrats and many health-care experts are warning that a swift repeal could lead insurers to stop selling policies to individuals on federally mandated exchanges. More than 12 million Americans are covered under those policies.
The current Health and Human Services Secretary, Sylvia Mathews Burwell, briefed Senate Democrats on December 8, 2016, on the expected unraveling of Obamacare’s insurance exchanges. As previously discussed on the MDM&C blog, Trump’s selection of Representative Tom Price to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services seems to be Trump’s first step towards repealing the ACA. Price has been a regular voice in opposition to the ACA. Price’s philosophy on fixing Obamacare is rooted in “clear[ing] out the bureaucratic impediments” to health-care providers so that the marketplace can figure out the best way to get people health insurance.
Some commentators have stated that a possible less drastic route Congress may go is to replace the ACA rather than an all-out repeal. Congress could pass a plan that doesn’t call for repeal for several years. Between now and then, there would need to be some kind of transition to whatever replaces Obamacare that did not just dump people off coverage with no alternative. However, others still believe that the Republican Congress will swiftly replace ACA’s ban on health status underwriting and pre-existing condition exclusions, as well as its individual mandate, with a continuous coverage guarantee and high-risk pools. This could mean that if individuals were initially uninsured or if they had to drop coverage because of financial hardship, they may face a penalty when they seek coverage significantly greater than the repealed individual mandate penalty. Many argue that these Republican plans would fall far short of the assistance lower-income Americans need, who are currently being helped by ACA.
However, in his recent 60 Minutes interview, President-Elect Trump assured the public that he agrees with certain parts of ACA. Trump plans to keep the ACA policy that allows young adults to stay on their parents’ insurance plans until age 26, as well as the provision that insurers must cover people with pre-existing conditions.
We are likely to know more in the coming months as Congress and the President-Elect begin to take action.